Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 146.191767 175.534938 211.433360 259.329206 322.725194 4.055020e+02 5.247996e+02
2025-03-16 107.254680 139.446752 183.471303 250.338084 353.718336 5.159042e+02 8.095331e+02
2025-03-23 93.762050 129.586439 183.083573 273.630629 434.444461 7.358259e+02 1.434024e+03
2025-03-30 80.851729 116.568293 173.326321 277.392024 483.340640 9.314434e+02 2.239042e+03
2025-04-06 72.621427 108.565368 168.867412 287.714455 548.284464 1.207621e+03 3.704919e+03
2025-04-13 64.154604 98.443497 158.293063 282.834554 578.692785 1.427546e+03 5.527326e+03
2025-04-20 61.065386 96.729842 162.100752 307.851779 692.870412 2.012380e+03 1.148322e+04
2025-04-27 57.905012 94.276021 163.859556 328.973079 811.128648 2.792556e+03 2.605413e+04
2025-05-04 54.663183 91.112939 163.484173 345.001871 926.778283 3.796698e+03 6.706157e+04
2025-05-11 51.422631 87.448562 161.308623 355.870295 1035.208752 5.055141e+03 2.132309e+05
2025-05-18 48.051604 83.059519 156.745659 358.986181 1119.590532 6.456802e+03 9.228006e+05
2025-05-25 44.423336 77.710145 149.146183 351.340056 1156.624488 7.661190e+03 6.032118e+06
2025-06-01 40.962688 72.474994 141.370620 342.287777 1189.455855 9.132734e+03 1.615904e+09
2025-06-08 37.661016 67.230314 132.832817 328.768656 1194.366343 1.043219e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 37.155947 67.810609 138.358878 362.274162 1481.206076 1.896629e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 35.314628 65.283078 135.750757 367.716671 1619.950887 2.737675e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.043913 63.866329 135.752141 382.744845 1847.811531 4.610582e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 32.028415 60.566467 130.294462 375.629721 1911.494886 6.153533e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 31.733197 61.156104 135.415405 412.266400 2400.017933 1.708940e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 31.183392 61.086460 138.720053 443.505829 2934.858355 6.061754e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 30.405221 60.384850 140.102569 467.395276 3479.284016 3.377927e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 29.460083 59.178393 139.800284 483.680911 4002.321461 6.994977e+07 NaN
2025-08-10 28.303131 57.337999 137.294723 488.362682 4394.881325 NaN NaN